The Year So Far

2026 portfolio yield, year to date

+43%

2025 portfolio yield

+36%

Best exposure

Nasdaq 100 Index

Worst exposure

McDonald's

It has been a chaotic year, with the Iran war hanging over everything, and still an extremely profitable one. Reading inflation, the Federal Reserve's response to it, and interest rates in both private and public markets, it made more sense to stay long US stocks than to step aside.

What contributed to yields

• —The US taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, and with it how much oil leaves the Gulf safely each day. More oil through the Strait means lower inflation in the US; less means higher.
• —The volatility of the war, which has worked in our favour. It let us sell positions as the market fell and buy them back at lower prices as it turned.
• —A gamma squeeze in US tech stocks at the start of the year, or what looked like one. We were extremely long through that period.

What hurt

• —An extremely dull market over the past four months.
• —Interest rate rises.
• —Inflation from two directions at once: the Iran war and the AI buildout. US import and export prices are up roughly 7% year on year, which makes the official CPI reading of around 3% look a little suspicious.

Outlook for the rest of the year

Leaning positive for further distributions. That is a lean, not a forecast, and the next letter will say whether it held.

Current portfolio

The figures in this letter represent an average of all managed portfolios. They are not personal financial advice and do not take account of your circumstances. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.